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this is a simulation of a fragmentation

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warhead on a missile exploding near a

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plane the idea is that we then look at

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where the fragmentation goes based on

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the speed of the missile must be to the

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plane and the speed of the fragmentation

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the dotted line here indicates the

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pattern of the missile we can move that

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by grabbing this handle here and

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rotating it around so we can share

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different trajectories of the missile

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and this point here indicates where the

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missile exploded relative to the plane

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and of course we can move that around to

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show different scenarios with missile

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coming from one direction or another

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direction other things we can modify our

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the speed of the missile which is set to

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1,000 meters per second by default we

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can move it up to 1,500 the

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fragmentation speed which we can modify

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as you see when we modify these speeds

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it modifies the pattern of fragmentation

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from the from the warhead now the

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determination of this fragmentation

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pattern is done by adding together the

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velocity of the missile and the velocity

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of the fragmentation and then

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subtracting the speed of the plane

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because we need to get the motion

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relative to the plane so you can see

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where the bits of shrapnel would impact

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the plane and whether they would

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possibly exit the plane we can also

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adjust the speed of the plane but I said

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it's 250 2 meters per second which is

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419 knots which is the last recorded

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speed of light mh17 I'm also using a 777

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as the background graphic here so you

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can see where it might impact things

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like the engines and the tail you'll

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notice that even though the primary

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damage is round here in the front of the

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plane we do we even with this simple

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setup quite a bit of damage in the wing

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and a bit on the tail as well it doesn't

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take very much to modify the spread of

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fragmentation so that the entire

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plain is covered or if we rotate the

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angle around we can get different

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results and moving the the point of

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impact and every waiting on the other

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side we can we can see similar different

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things the unknowns here are basically

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what is the fragmentation speed of the

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warhead you can see quite a bit of

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difference with different speeds what

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was the speed of the missile was it

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1,000 meters per second closing speed or

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was it perhaps just 750 meters per

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second with a relative speed of a

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thousand and what's the spread actually

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56 degrees as some people suggested or

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was it a a higher value or a lower value

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but this allows you to very quickly try

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out different numbers and see what the

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resultant damage pattern might be now

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one thing to remember is that this is

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just two dimensional the real explosive

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explosion pattern is it can have a two

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dimensional expanding donut which will

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be essentially like a cone shape but

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this will give you a good idea around

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this region because essentially just a

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slice through that donut which you will

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see here and in other places too the